Currently, in Ukraine, there is a severe
conflict between the US and Europe
side and Russia over Ukraine’s
accession to the EU and NATO.
This is the so-called tense “Ukrainian
situation”.
Since December 2021, the Russian
army has been deploying an army
of 100,000 people in the area around
the border with Ukraine and has
been repeating military exercises
(Image below).
And it poses a great threat
“Russia may invade Ukraine” to the
international community.
Here, I would like to consider
“Why the confrontation between
the U S, Europe and Russia has
begun” -the factors and the
possibility of future breakthroughs.
Since December 2021 last year,
Russia has requested the Western
side to “not expand NATO any
further to Eastern Europe” and
demanded the Western side to
submit a written response to it.
In response, on January 26, 2022,
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
informed the Russian side in writing
the answer, “We can’t meet that
request.”
Although the contents of the
Russia’s request have not been
officially disclosed, it seems that
the following items were included.
・ NATO will end military activities
in Eastern Europe and withdraw
troops from Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania in Poland and the Baltic
States.
・ NATO should not deploy missiles
in countries close to Russia or
countries bordering Russia.
Secretary of State Blinken replied,
“We cannot meet with any of these
request.”
However, Blinken also said,
“Both the United States and Europe
proposed to take steps (discussion) to
limit future military exercises, missile
deployments and build trust with
Russia.”
This is the statement to Russia that
the “The Western side is willing to
continue discussions.” And “Now
the ball is on the Russian side,”
he said, ending the press conference.
In response, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted in
an interview with local media on
January 28:
“If it depends on Russia, there will
be no war. However, it cannot be
denied that some people want to
induce military action, and
the Ukrainian government is out
of control of their army.
However, the proposal of Secretary
of State Blinken to ‘Discuss
restrictions on missile deployment
and build mutual trust’ is rational
and evaluated.”
Regarding this Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov’s statement, first, his remarks
“If it depends on Russia, there will be
no war” is insisting that “Russia has no
intention of invading Ukraine.”
Also, what exactly does “The Ukrainian
government is out of control of their
army” mean?
This does not mean that “Ukrainian
government forces sometimes attack
100,000 Russian troops waiting
around the outside of Ukraine, and the
Ukrainian government cannot stop that.”
Within Ukraine, the forces were
originally divided into east and west,
and armed clashes between the two
forces have continued since 2014,
when Russia annexed the Crimean
Peninsula.
Government forces in the western
part of Ukraine are close to
European countries and want to join
NATO. Kiev, the capital, is also on the
west side.
On the other hand, on the east side,
there are pro-Russian armed groups,
and they have frequently caused
armed conflicts with the government
forces on the west side.
And in particular, since 2014, when
the Crimean Peninsula was annexed
to Russia, the battle between the
two forces has intensified.
This civil war is still going on.
And it seems that occasionally
Western government troops attack
pro-Russian armed groups in the
east. Foreign Minister Lavrov
describes that attack as
“The Ukrainian government is
out of control of their army.”
Meanwhile, according to
Foreign Minister Lavrov above,
Russia evaluated Secretary of
State Blinken’s proposal to
“Discuss restrictions on missile
deployment and build mutual trust.”
Also on the Russian side, there
may be many desires to solve this
Ukrainian problem through
discussions.
French-Russia Summit
Meeting on February 7
On February 7, Russian President
Vladimir Putin met with French
President Emmanuel Macron in
Moscow. The meeting was
a five-hour, passionate one.
Details of the talks were not
disclosed, but President Putin
said in a joint statement:
“It is not ‘Russia is going towards
NATO and giving a threat.’
The fact is the opposite.
NATO is spreading to Eastern
Europe and giving threat us.”
Also, French President Macron said:
“Now is in a state of extreme tension.
It’s been rarely seen in recent decades.
The important thing is to continue
efforts to avoid making things worse.
The next few days are extremely
important and we need to have
intensive discussions.”
President Macron expressed his
intention to continue deepening
discussions with Ukraine and
European countries.
*
Now among them, I would like to
think about President Putin’s
remarks in particular.
What does President Putin’s remarks
“NATO is giving threat Russian side”
mean?
Has NATO in the west ever expanded
so much territory to the regions of
Eastern European countries?
Many of the topographical images of
Ukraine that have been published in
the world media so far are as follows,
and only Ukraine and neighboring
countries are simply listed.
With this, it is almost impossible to
understand “How NATO has expanded
to Eastern Europe.”
However, if you look at the BBC image
below, that becomes clear at a glance.
This figure shows how many
eastern countries have belonged
to NATO since 1997.
As shown in the figure, in the last
20 years, 14 eastern countries
have joined NATO one after
another. If you look at this from
the Russian side, it looks like
NATO is expanding to the east.
The events that started it were
the end of the Cold War in 1989
and the collapse of the former
Soviet Union in 1991. With these
events as a trigger, the Cold War
between East and West completely
ended.
At that time, the collapsed Soviet
Union had an urgent need to
rebuild its internal affairs and
calm domestic turmoil, and could
not afford to think of their former
Eastern European allies.
After the collapse of the former
Soviet Union, the lords (central
leader nation) of the eastern camps
disappeared, and most Eastern
European nations deepened their
ties with the western nations and
joined NATO.
Given these past history, we can
understand President Putin’s
feelings a little.
Perhaps as Russia’s intention,
the desire “Not to give only Ukraine,
which was a former ally, to the
West” would have been strong.
However, these 14 countries were
never forced to join NATO by the
United States, Europe and NATO.
Each of the 14 countries
has voluntarily joined NATO in
search of sovereignty and
territorial protection.
Therefore, this is the basis for
Western countries, when insisting
the following:
“It is not that NATO allowed eastern
countries to join NATO with the
intention of expanding or invading.”
“All Eastern nations have voluntarily
joined NATO.”
“Western countries have no
intention at all, of invading other
countries.”
Future outlook
When considering the future
outlook, the statements made by
President Putin and Foreign Minister
Lavrov become key points in solving
the problem.
Foreign Minister Lavrov said,
“If it depends on Russia, there will
be no war.”
This is probably Russia’s true
intention.
Russia does not seem to have
the intention of invading Ukraine
and waging war. It is believed that
they are seeking a solution
through discussions with the West.
In addition, President Putin’s
remarks “The fact is the opposite.
NATO is spreading to Eastern
Europe and giving threat us” is
probably based on the historical
background since the collapse of
the former Soviet Union in 1991.
(Above figure)
From this statement, President
Putin’s true intention,
“I want the United States and
Europe to understand that feeling,”
comes to be conveyed.
Also, from this statement, the
Russian side’s desire to “solve this
problem through dialogue” can
be drawn.
Secretary of State Blinken also
said in a statement on January 26,
“We proposed to take steps
(discussion) to build trust with
Russia” so I expect that the
dialogue will continue in the future.
And I sincerely hope that the
tragedy of the former Cold War
will never be repeated.
