2022 President Biden and China

A truly mysterious event happened
in September 2021.
It is, on the late night of September
16th, China suddenly applied for
membership in the TPP.
This event is extremely mysterious.
The reason why it is mysterious is
that the hurdles for joining the TPP,
which consists of Western Democracies
of 11 countries, are extremely high and
there are many strict rules.

And in the current state of China, they
are far from being able to join it. China,
who knows in details about the TPP’s
mechanics and rules, must have known
that fact.

So, did China apply for membership, even
though they knew from the beginning that
they couldn’t join the TPP?
It is extremely mysterious, but I have no
choice to think so.
In other words, despite knowing the fact
that China cannot join the TPP from the
beginning, they have filed an application
for membership in the TPP.
China suddenly announced that on the
night of September 16th.

In the background of that, there may be
some imminent significant change or
reason for China.
What is that reason or change?
And where is the true intention of China?

In this Article, I would like to think about
that.

What kind of Economic Agreement
is the TPP

It was late last year (November 2020) that
China first showed its willingness to join the
TPP.
At this time, President Xi Jinping participated
in APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)
online and stated “Actively consider participating
in the TPP
.” That was the beginning.

Since then, China has long been in talks
with TPP member states. However, talks
did not progress and the conditions for
China to join were not met.

Now, I would like to see what kind of
Agreement the TPP is.
Also, what are the high hurdle regulations
that is set up there?

The TPP is an abbreviation for “Trans-Pacific
Partnership Agreement.”
It is an Economic Partnership Agreement 
originally formed under the goal of
“Building freedom and fair rules
between the United States and
Japan and other countries surrounding
the Pacific Ocean, and eliminating
Tariffs that hinder trade.”

Initially, the TPP was formed between
12 countries with the United States
and Japan at the center, Australia,
Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia,
Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore
and Vietnam.
However, after that, the United States
became the Trump administration
and withdrew.

The reason for the withdrawal was that
the Trump administration insisted that
Economic Agreements must be made
individually between the two countries.

Therefore, TPP member countries
become 11 and it became “TPP 11.”

2021 was exactly the year when Japan
was the presidency.
The role of the presidency is to decide
the agenda based on the international
situation at that time, lead the discussion
as the chair during the meeting, and finally
disseminate the contents of the meeting
to the world.
At that year, on September 16, 2021,
China suddenly offered to apply for
membership.

However, as I said earlier, the TPP has
many strict rules for China. The main
contents of the rule are listed below.

① Protection of intellectual property
      rights and free data distribution,

② Elimination of nearly 100% of tariffs

③ Restriction of unfair subsidies to
      state-owned enterprises

④ Provisions to protect workers’ rights,
      such as the elimination of forced labor

Any of these items is a high hurdle for
China.

Reasons why China cannot
join the TPP (1) 

For example, regarding Protection
of intellectual property rights and
free data distribution” and
Restriction of unfair subsidies to
state-owned enterprises,” 
the Chinese government is currently
providing large subsidies to its
state-owned enterprises and providing
various preferential treatment.

It also strictly regulates the
movement of data held by companies
across national borders.
This alone is expected to make it difficult
for China to join the TPP, and in order to
join it, these things must be improved.

(According to the provisions of the TPP,
the consent of all member states is
required when a new country joins
the TPP. For instance, if there is even
one country that opposes ① and ③,
China’s membership will not be
established)

Reasons why China cannot
join the TPP (2)

Next, about Elimination of
nearly 100% of tariffs.”

Last year 2020 was the year
when coronavirus infection became
a global pandemic. Australia once
asked China this year to investigate
the source of the coronavirus
independently.

Immediately after that, China imposed
high tariffs of around 200% on some
imported products, such as Australian
wine and barley, and also restricted
imports.

For that treatment, the Australian
Government has filed a lawsuit with
the WTO, and at a later date,
China also has filed a lawsuit with the
WTO for some of its imports from
Australia. And even now, they are in
struggle on this matter.

This fact is If China joins the TPP
in the future, will it be possible to
continue to “strictly adhere to nearly
100% tariff elimination” for other
member countries under any
circumstances?
That will be the point issue.

If China seems to change the amount
of tariffs significantly due to various
political and social changes, it is less
likely that the agreement of member
states will be obtained.

Human rights issues in
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous
Region

Reasons why China cannot
join the TPP (3)

Next, regarding Provisions to protect
workers’ rights, such as the elimination
of forced labor,”
China is currently at odds with countries
around the world, centered on the United
States, over the treatment of residents of
the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
China argues that the Uighur issue is 
“A Self-government issues in own country”
and that it is in a position of
non-intervention in domestic affairs.

However, the US Parliament and others
consider the treatment of the Chinese
government on the residents of China’s
Uygur Autonomous Region as clearly
A Human Rights violation.”

To put it shortly, China is unlikely to get
unanimous consent from the TPP member
states unless it shows improvement in
this Uygur Autonomous Region issue.

Ask again, why did China apply
for
membership in the TPP?

So, getting back to the first Question —
As mentioned above, TPP has a number
of rules that make it difficult for China to
join and even though they know that it is
unlikely that it will be able to join the TPP,
why did China apply now?
And why did China do that at this time?
There are many views in the world on it.

One of the views is “The reason China
has applied for membership in the TPP
is that they have applied in order to
counter several western Military Alliances
centered on the United States that are
increasing pressure on China’s military
buildup in recent years.”

The Military Alliance centered on the
United States refers to AUKUS (the three-
country military alliance) of the United
States, the United Kingdom, and Australia)
and QUAD (the four-country strategic talks) 
of Japan, the United States, India, and
Australia).
Both are Alliances established to ensure
the security of the Asia-Pacific region.

Among them, AUKUS is a Military Alliance
among the three countries of the United
States, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
The inauguration was announced on
September 15, 2021.
It was the United Kingdom that proposed
the establishment, and it is said that the
United Kingdom had a desire to seek
a way of trade in Asia after leaving the EU.

QUAD is not a military alliance, but a
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which
refers to talks between the four countries
of Japan, the United States, India, and
Australia, which have strategic alliances.
The main purpose of the talks is to
develop diplomatic arrangements that
correspond to the economic and political
power of the ever-growing China.

“China, which is concerned about the
formation of such a military siege against
China, has applied for membership in the
TPP in order to divide those Military
Alliances
.” — That is the view.

There is also a view that “China has
indicated its intention to join the TPP
as a stepping stone to establish Leadership 
in the Asia-Pacific region.”
Currently, the United States is not
a member of the TPP, so if China joins,
China could take the economic initiative
in this region.
And in the future, it can serve as a
shield of defense against “The Military
Alliances of the Western countries
surrounding China” as described above.
That’s why.

I disagree with the reason that China
applied for membership in the TPP in
the Asia-Pacific region with the intention
to “divide” Western countries’ Dialogues
and Alliances.
Perhaps I don’t think China originally had
the intention of “Dividing.”

Or, I’m also negative about the intention
to establish military and economic
leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.
Given China’s mighty economic and
military power, it may be unavoidable for
neighboring countries to interpret it as
“There was such an intention” as a result.
But even if there was, I think that is not
the main reason why China has decided
to apply for membership in the TPP this
time.
*
As another view, there is the view that
China applied for membership in the
TPP with Taiwan in mind.”
Indeed, there is the fact that China is
currently pushing towards the achievement
of “One China,” which states that “China
and Taiwan are one nation.”
However, I think that Taiwan’s problem has
nothing to do with the reason why China
applied for membership in the TPP this
time.

Recently, “The One China” and “Taiwan Issue”
have rapidly come up to the forefront.
However, this is because, immediately after
China applied for membership in the TPP,
Taiwan applied for membership in the TPP.

(After China applied for membership in the
TPP on September 16, Taiwan submitted
an application for membership on
September 24.)

That’s why many Chinese fighter planes
invaded the Air Defense Identification Zone
(ADIZ) over Taiwan, and the confrontation
problem between “Taiwan and China” has
been greatly highlighted.

Before Taiwan applied for membership in
the TPP, China didn’t make much noise on
the Taiwan issue.
Therefore, I believe that China’s application
for membership in the TPP this time, was
not because of the Taiwan issue.

The true intention of China

So what was the real intention of China
applying for membership in the TPP?

First of all, from the above-mentioned
Reasons why China cannot join the
TPP (1) (2) (3),” it is clear that China cannot
to join the TPP in the current state.
Even though China knew that fact, China
applied for membership.

I think that means that there had been even
more important things for China than
“whether or not they can join.

What on earth is that?

In conclusion, I think that was one point
that “They wanted to create a clue to
build a strong cooperative relationship
with Western countries
.

China needed some medium to show their will
– the will of wishes to build partnerships – to
countries in the Asia-Pacific region including
the United States.
It happened there, that there was a
convenient framework of “Economic
Partnership Agreement” called the TPP.

However, for China, it did not have to be
the TPP.
Any other agreement, treaty, anything was
fine for China, if there is a medium that can
express the intention that “They want to build
a strong cooperative relationship with Western
countries now.”

They probably thought as follows:

If China makes the manifestation of intention
in the form of “Application for membership in
the TPP
” now, even if they couldn’t join now,
it could be a strong stepping stone (foundation),
when they build a strong partnership with the
Western world someday.

Also, if they apply it now, they can request
or consult in the future, with current TPP
member countries with the subject
“Wishing on cooperation with China.”
And, while discussing them, they will be
able to build strong bonds and relationships
of trust with each country.
China would have expected that possibility
as well.

So why come at this time now, did China
suddenly need to build a strong partnership
with countries in the Asia-Pacific region?

Simply put, it is because the possibility of
that Mainland China could be attacked from
behind, has increased rapidly at this time.

Where on earth does that “Attack from
behind” mean an attack from?

It is a threat from a vast region from the
Middle East to India, Southeast Asia and
Africa, including Afghanistan.
As we all know, the US military withdrew
completely from Afghanistan on August 31,
2021 this year.

This event, in fact, changed today’s
international situation into another world
at once.

China’s and Russia’s reaction to
Afghanistan’s withdrawal of US
troops

Going back a few months ago, when the
U.S. military withdrew from Afghanistan
on August 31st, how did China and Russia
react?

I think many people thought, “China and
Russia will be pleased, since their Rival,
America has disappeared from that part
of the Eurasian continent.

Also, many people may be still thinking so.

But the facts are the other way around,
they got angry.

The reason is, “They left behind heavy
luggage and went away. America is
irresponsible !! “
That’s their claim.

On July 29, China’s Defense Ministry
spokesman Wu Qian made an unsatisfied
allegation against the US administration,
which decided to withdraw all troops from
Afghanistan.

“The United States is responsible for the
situation in Afghanistan and should not
run away and leave heavy luggage in
this area.”

Also, according to several diplomatic
sources, it is said that Russia also
expressed dissatisfaction with the hasty
withdrawal of US troops.
After that, President Putin attended the 
joint summit of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation
Organization) and the Security Treaty
Organization of the former Soviet Union
countries held in Tajikistan in Central Asia
on October 17th, and said as follows:

“When the United States withdrew from
Afghanistan, they left with Pandora’s box
open.”
“The contents of the box are full of
problems associated with terrorism,
drug trafficking, criminal organizations,
and religious radical organizations.”

President Putin is deeply concerned
about the movement of extremist
and criminal organizations in this region,
including Afghanistan after the withdrawal
of US troops.

“In the past, the movement of extremist
organizations was suppressed because
the US military was stationed, but now
that suppression has been lifted and
many problems are occurring.”

So what about China?

China has so far maintained good
diplomatic relations with the Taliban
administration in Afghanistan after
the US military left.

The Chinese government has provided
3 million doses of coronavirus vaccine,
pledged financial support, and has been
announcing support to the Taliban
administration in Afghanistan one after
another.

However, while developing such friendly
diplomacy, China is also carefully preparing
for emergencies.

On September 10, a large Chinese military
transport plane 
landed at a military base in
Orenburg Oblast, southern Russia.
This is in order to participate in a
Joint Military Exercise by eight SCO
member countries centered on
Russia and China.

China has sent 558 Elite Troops and
130 Military Vehicles.

The purpose of the joint military exercise
is only one, A Future Counter-Terrorism
Operation.

However, China today does not have the
Remaining Capacity to send troops to
rule Afghanistan like the United States
and the former Soviet Union.

While China develops friendly and
supportive diplomacy against the
Taliban administration in Afghanistan,
they must minimize the impact in the
event of an emergency on the other
hand.
To that end, military preparedness
and preparation are essential.
If a densely populated country like
China is attacked by a terrorist
organization, even with the mighty
military power of China, great damage
will be expected.

These terrorist organizations are
organizations that the US military could
not eradicate even with huge war costs
and troops.
No matter how powerful the army is
in China, Chinese leaders will wonder if
China could win against these terrorist
organizations.

The US military has spent $ 500 billion
on the Iraq War and the rule of
Afghanistan in the first five years since
the start of the Iraq War in 2003.
It also resulted in the casualties of
thousands of American soldiers.
Since then, even greater war costs have
been incurred until the withdrawal of
all US troops from Afghanistan on
August 31, 2021.

Still, all extremist organizations could
not be eradicated.

They will think, “If we are attacked and
became fighting, China will not lose, but
how far can it protect the land that is
continuous and densely populated?

What is certain is that there will be many
casualties.

In the minds of Chinese leaders, this kind
of thing may continuously being asked.

The Chinese government is ostensibly
insisting that they are maintaining good
diplomatic relations with the Taliban
administration. But now it’s good, however
its unknown what will happen in the future.

Not limited to the Taliban Administration,
what the current Administration of China is
in mind, is a deep suspicion, distrust, and
fear of human nature itself.

In their long history of the past, Chinese
people have received tragic aggressions
many times and had bitter experiences.
So they’ll be able to understand intuitively.

China is the nation with a long history that
is nearly twice that of Japan.

If human – powerful people – gain the power,
and the situation changes, man may invade
other nations by abandoning even tightly
signed interstate treaties and friendship
treaties very easily and unilaterally.
They know that empirically.

Now, what does China and Russia think
about in the face of the vast area after
the US military has left?
Let’s think about it.

Face of the Taliban administration

Now, let’s take a look at face of the
Taliban administration, which took
control of Afghanistan after the
withdrawal of US troops.

On September 7, Taliban administration
spokesman Zabifra Mujahid announced
the appearance of Taliban interim
government executives
.

The Taliban administration has so far
announced that it will “strive to establish
a comprehensive government that
represents everyone in Afghanistan.”
A comprehensive government means
establishing a government that recognizes
the human rights of many people, including
women.

But far from being comprehensive, it was
an exclusive personnel affair that only
accepted the Taliban.
It is unclear what will happen in the future.

For example, the face of Mr. Shirajudin
Haqqani, who was appointed Minister of
the Interior, is used in the wanted poster of
the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI),
which announced a $ 5 million bounty
.

In addition, the strong Taliban rulers of the
1990s are returning as executives in the
administration, having their thick beards.

Persons imprisoned in the Guantanamo
Bay Depot (1)
 in the United States or
blacklisted in the United States and the
United Nations
.

In addition, the warlords on the battle front
who have troubled the US military in recent
months
 / Combatants of 100 battles,
A self-proclaimed pacifist at the negotiating
table. It also includes people who have
traveled to the capitals of each region,
promising the establishment of a new
administration called the Taliban 2.0.

These people form the leadership of
the Taliban administration.
                  (BBC News September 9th)

(1) Guantanamo Camp――
A US Southern Command containment
camp located at Guantanamo Bay Naval
Base in Cuba. It was established in 2002
during the Bush Administration. During
the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq,
those suspected of being involved in
terrorism or having any information by
the U.S. military have been forcibly taken
here and numerous have been detained.
However, it has been criticized for being
an illegal detention that violates the
“Fourteenth Amendment to the United
States Constitution,” which provides for
the improper process of law, and the Cuban
government is demanding the return of the
base.

Remarks of Mark Milley, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the
U.S. Congress

At a hearing of the US Senate on
September 28, Mark Milley, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, commented
on the future situation in Afghanistan:

The Taliban was and still is a terrorist
organization
 and has not yet declined
its relationship with the extremist
organization Al Qaeda.”

“The rallying of al-Qaeda and ISIS (Islamic
State Group) who want to attack the
United States is a fairly realistic possibility.
In ungoverned areas, their conditions for
activity may be met (formed) within the
next 12 months to 3 years.

After the U.S. military withdrew from
Afghanistan, such a tense situation
continues from Afghanistan to the
Middle East and Africa.

Under such circumstances, I believe
that the strongest and best way China
has chosen to defend their territory was
to build strong partnerships with countries
in the Asia-Pacific region
.
That’s why China came at this time,
rushed to apply for membership in the
TPP.

I believe that China knew that building
strong partnerships with countries in
the Asia-Pacific region was
“The Strongest Security.”
I think Chinese leaders have learned
such wisdom from the lessons of their
long history.

From this point of view, China now is
far from a threat for the United States,
Japan and Australia, it can be said its
a great time of opportunity to build true
friendships.
China is currently carrying a large
baggage, “They must defend the behind
of the Chinese continent.”
Therefore, it can be said that China feels
the need to build partnerships with
countries in the Asia-Pacific region, even
albeit with some concessions
.

Therefore, for the United States, Europe,
Japan and Australia, it is a time to speak
up and negotiate with China.
I think that the Chinese side will have
a listening attitude even if they negotiate
with a little bullish.

After the US military withdrew from
Afghanistan, China entered a completely
different world of situations.

Future outlook

However, thinking from these
perspective, it would become the
existence of extremist organizations 
that made China strongly aware
of the need to build strong partnerships
with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Regarding the extremist organization,  
we must never expand this force
excessively in the future.

This is because if they expand the power
like the former Islamic State of ISIS,
there is a risk targeting not only China
but also civilized countries such as
the United States, Europe and Japan.
What the U.S. Army Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, Miller, is concerned
above, is also that point.

If that happens, tragic terrorist attacks
can occur in various parts of the world.
War can also occur. A catastrophe
could cover the world again.

But now, the extremist organizations
scattered throughout this region-from
Afghanistan to the Middle East and Africa-
have not yet become such a major force.

So it’s important to keep their power
small, or to suppress their power to
a level that it does not harm the
countries of the world.

Alternatively, it is important to keep
the existence of extremist organizations
down to the extent that they suppress
the various excessive acts” of China and
other countries
 in the international
community.

Then, after finishing the role of such
coordination, bringing those forces to
disappear naturally.
And in those areas as well-from
Afghanistan to the Middle East, Africa-
Peace and Prosperity must come to.

From now on, it is necessary to do such
a thing without using any army nor
modern weapons of high killing ability
at all.

To achieve that, we cannot send US
troops to this area again.
If US troops were dispatched to this
area, as in a secondary disaster at
a disaster site, many casualties could
again occur to the inhabitants of this
area and military soldiers.

Also, once the US military has
withdrawn completely, they will not do
that. President Biden has declared that
The Era of large-scale military operations
to remake another country is over.

So what should we do?

From now on, it is time to utilize the
power of specialized law in each
specialized field and the Law of Origin,
and deal with the problem by
The Power of Law.”

Especially, the Law of Origin has the
power to properly position the power of
specialized law in each field, such as
politics, economic and diplomatic law,
or international law, and to make them
work effectively.

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